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The us job market has performed well in 2019 but may be the worst in a decade

January 9th it was a stellar year for America’s job market, the worst in nearly a decade.

The final jobs report for 2019, due on Friday, is expected to show that us employers added 160,000 jobs in December, down from 266,000 in November but still well above the level needed to accommodate population growth. That would add up to 2.14 million nonfarm payrolls in 2019, helped by resilient consumption and a surge in government spending.

The full-year forecast is about a quarter of a million higher than economists had expected a year ago. But it was also the slowest pace since 2011, down from 2.68 million in 2018. The totals for 2018 and 2019 are likely to be revised down after revisions are released next month.

The us economy is expanding into its 11th year of record expansion, and the overall slowdown in the Labour market is in line with many economists’ expectations as the stimulus from tax cuts fades, uncertainty about tariffs hinders and weighs on employment.

For 2020, many economists expect average monthly non-farm payrolls growth to moderate to between 12.7 and 178, 000, a slowdown that could weigh on Mr Trump’s re-election. Uncertainty over trade, strained relations between the us and Iran, the presidential election and slowing global demand are likely to further damp business investment, while shrinking Labour forces are also limiting supply.

With employment growth unexpectedly picking up in the final months of last year and performing better than expected, it is too early to call for a sharp slowdown in non-farm payrolls.

“One lesson we’ve learned over the years from this cycle is that the Labour market has consistently outperformed,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief us economist at deutsche bank.

Ford Austin

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